Supply Chain Disruptions

A forecaster that predicts supplier and logistics disruptions before they happen

34%

more accurate than GPT-5 on supply chain predictions

59%

better calibrated than GPT-5

4×

precision@10% vs. baseline on high-risk disruptions

What we did

  • Ingested supplier performance metrics, ERP shipment logs, and industry news with timestamps.
  • Generated forward-looking disruption questions anchored at each point in history.
  • Labeled each question using the actual downstream outcome (ASN slip, dwell spike, price move).
  • Trained a 32B model with RL to output calibrated probabilities, then benchmarked against GPT-5.

Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

DATASET Disruption outlook
RL
Question
Will Acme Motors Tier-1 supplier FlexAlloy (plant Shenzhen) log a >3-day ASN slip on part HV-220 busbars in the next 30 days?
Question source
Supplier portal
Jan 8, 2026
On-time performance slipped to 94% vs. 98% prior quarter
Label
Yes.
Type
binary
Confidence
0.91
Label source
ERP shipment log
Feb 4, 2026
ASN delayed 11 days — weather and carrier capacity cited

DATASET Disruption outlook
RL
Question
Will TSMC advanced-node (N3E) wafer starts allocated to our GPU line card fall short of the 12k wafers/quarter run rate implied by the Mar 14, 2025 foundry letter?
Question source
Financial Times
Mar 14, 2025
Foundries warn of tight advanced-node allocation through Q3
Label
No.
Type
binary
Confidence
0.86
Label source
Company ops review
Jun 30, 2025
Dual-sourcing plan held; no line-down events recorded

DATASET Disruption outlook
RL
Question
Will median dwell time for our 40-foot import boxes at Port of Long Beach terminals exceed 4.5 days during the week of Jan 13–19, 2026 (per PIERS / terminal API)?
Question source
Journal of Commerce
Jan 6, 2026
ILWU local meetings raise risk of slower gate turns at San Pedro Bay
Label
No.
Type
binary
Confidence
0.85
Label source
TMS analytics
Jan 20, 2026
LB dwell 3.1 days avg; no demurrage events on monitored POs

DATASET Disruption outlook
RL
Question
What is the probability that LME three-month nickel settles above $19,000/ton at least once in the 60 trading days after the Mar 1, 2026 Indonesian ore export quota announcement?
Question source
Fastmarkets
Feb 18, 2026
Nickel rally stalls as stainless restocking fades
Label
0.22
Type
continuous
Confidence
0.80
Label source
LME
May 20, 2026
Cash-settled month high $18,420/ton; no session above $19k in window

Results

Benchmark comparisons against frontier models.

Aggregate Performance vs. GPT-5 and gpt-oss-120b

The trained model beats GPT-5 and gpt-oss-120b on every headline metric: Brier 0.0791 vs. 0.1203 (GPT-5), Brier Skill Score +16.9% vs. −26.4%, and ECE 0.0525 vs. 0.1740 for the pretrained base — a ~70% reduction in calibration error.

Calibration vs. GPT-5 on Supply Chain Predictions

The trained model closely tracks the perfect-calibration diagonal — when it says 30% probability, roughly 30% of disruptions materialize. GPT-5 and the base model severely under-predict high-risk events. Precision@10% improves 4× (35% vs. 9%).