# Pro Golf

A golf forecaster that ranks #1 on ProphetArena Sports, ahead of GPT-5 and Grok-4

32% better Brier Skill Score than GPT-5 on professional golf outcomes

41% better probability calibration than GPT-5

## What we did

- Collected historical PGA tournament data, player stats, and event-level shot records.
- Generated forecasting questions anchored at pre-tournament and round-by-round timestamps.
- Labeled with the actual tournament outcome — cut made, winner, hole-in-one, head-to-head.
- Fine-tuned with RL and evaluated on 855 held-out golf questions.

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## Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

DATASET **Tournament outcomes**

RL

**Question**  
Will world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Players Championship outright given the Mar 6 draw, TPC Sawgrass firm-and-fast setup, and current Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green rankings?

**Question source**  
PGA Tour Mar 6, 2025

**Weather window firms**; firm conditions favor longer hitters off the tee

**Label**  
No.

**Type**  
binary

**Confidence**  
0.84

**Label source**  
Leaderboard Mar 9, 2025

**Playoff decided on second extra hole** — top seed eliminated in R3

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DATASET **Tournament outcomes**

RL

**Question**  
What is the probability of a hole-in-one on the Stadium Course’s par-3 7th (178 yards, front-left pin per Apr 18 course notes) during Friday’s second round of the 2025 RBC Heritage?

**Question source**  
Course notes Apr 18, 2025

**Hole 7 playing 178 yards** with front-left pin on narrow tier

**Label**  
0.11

**Type**  
continuous

**Confidence**  
0.90

**Label source**  
Shotlink Apr 19, 2025

**No aces recorded**; closest approach 4 feet

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DATASET **Tournament outcomes**

RL

**Question**  
Will 2024 Q-School graduate Jake Knapp (OWGR 87) make the cut at the 2025 Players after opening 74-71 on Thu–Fri?

**Question source**  
PGA Tour Mar 13, 2025

**Knapp two back of projected cut line** with 36 holes to play

**Label**  
Yes.

**Type**  
binary

**Confidence**  
0.79

**Label source**  
PGA Tour Mar 14, 2025

**Knapp posts weekend 68-70; finishes T41 at 287**

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DATASET **Tournament outcomes**

RL

**Question**  
After round 1 of the 2025 Players, will Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy post the lower 18-hole score (countback if tied)?

**Question source**  
Data Golf Mar 12, 2025

**Model gives Scheffler 41%** first-round leader equity vs. 18% for McIlroy

**Label**  
Scheffler.

**Type**  
binary

**Confidence**  
0.81

**Label source**  
PGA Tour leaderboard Mar 13, 2025

**R1: Scheffler 67 (−5); McIlroy 72 (E)**

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## Results

Benchmark comparisons against frontier models.

### ProphetArena Sports Leaderboard

Foresight V1 32B ranks #1 on ProphetArena Sports ahead of Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and multiple GPT-5 variants. On 855 held-out golf questions, it achieved Brier Skill Score +17.0% vs. +12.8% for GPT-5, with 41% lower calibration error (ECE 0.062 vs. 0.106).

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