Pro Golf

A golf forecaster that ranks #1 on ProphetArena Sports, ahead of GPT-5 and Grok-4

32% better Brier Skill Score than GPT-5 on professional golf outcomes

41% better probability calibration than GPT-5

What we did

  • Collected historical PGA tournament data, player stats, and event-level shot records.
  • Generated forecasting questions anchored at pre-tournament and round-by-round timestamps.
  • Labeled with the actual tournament outcome — cut made, winner, hole-in-one, head-to-head.
  • Fine-tuned with RL and evaluated on 855 held-out golf questions.

Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

DATASET Tournament outcomes

RL

Question
Will world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Players Championship outright given the Mar 6 draw, TPC Sawgrass firm-and-fast setup, and current Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green rankings?

Question source
PGA Tour Mar 6, 2025

Weather window firms; firm conditions favor longer hitters off the tee

Label
No.

Type
binary

Confidence
0.84

Label source
Leaderboard Mar 9, 2025

Playoff decided on second extra hole — top seed eliminated in R3

DATASET Tournament outcomes

RL

Question
What is the probability of a hole-in-one on the Stadium Course’s par-3 7th (178 yards, front-left pin per Apr 18 course notes) during Friday’s second round of the 2025 RBC Heritage?

Question source
Course notes Apr 18, 2025

Hole 7 playing 178 yards with front-left pin on narrow tier

Label
0.11

Type
continuous

Confidence
0.90

Label source
Shotlink Apr 19, 2025

No aces recorded; closest approach 4 feet

DATASET Tournament outcomes

RL

Question
Will 2024 Q-School graduate Jake Knapp (OWGR 87) make the cut at the 2025 Players after opening 74-71 on Thu–Fri?

Question source
PGA Tour Mar 13, 2025

Knapp two back of projected cut line with 36 holes to play

Label
Yes.

Type
binary

Confidence
0.79

Label source
PGA Tour Mar 14, 2025

Knapp posts weekend 68-70; finishes T41 at 287

DATASET Tournament outcomes

RL

Question
After round 1 of the 2025 Players, will Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy post the lower 18-hole score (countback if tied)?

Question source
Data Golf Mar 12, 2025

Model gives Scheffler 41% first-round leader equity vs. 18% for McIlroy

Label
Scheffler.

Type
binary

Confidence
0.81

Label source
PGA Tour leaderboard Mar 13, 2025

R1: Scheffler 67 (−5); McIlroy 72 (E)

Results

Benchmark comparisons against frontier models.

ProphetArena Sports Leaderboard

Foresight V1 32B ranks #1 on ProphetArena Sports ahead of Grok 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and multiple GPT-5 variants. On 855 held-out golf questions, it achieved Brier Skill Score +17.0% vs. +12.8% for GPT-5, with 41% lower calibration error (ECE 0.062 vs. 0.106).