# Geopolitical Risks

Forecasting cross-border conflict, sanctions, and strategic-military events

## What we did

- Ingested timestamped wire reports, think-tank briefs, and MoD/DoD releases.
- Generated forecasting questions on cross-border military activity, sanctions, and alliance behavior.
- Labeled from public ground-truth trackers (Taiwan MND, ACLED, Treasury OFAC actions).
- Trained a specialized model on the outcome-labeled corpus.

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## Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

DATASET **Geopolitical events**

RL

Question  
What is the probability of at least one People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait in Aug 2026 after the Jul 2026 joint U.S.–Philippines exercise schedule is published?

Question source  
CSIS ChinaPowerJul 1, 2026  
PLAN sorties up 18% week-on-week ahead of Balikatan follow-on

Label  
0.61

Type  
continuous

Confidence  
0.74

Label source  
Taiwan Ministry of National DefenseAug 31, 2026  
Daily PLA tracker: 14 median-line crossings logged in August

DATASET **Geopolitical events**

RL

Question  
Will the U.S. Treasury OFAC add at least three new entities to the SDN list in connection with Russian oil-price-cap evasion during Q2 2026?

Question source  
ReutersApr 4, 2026  
Treasury signals fresh designations after ship-to-ship transfers spike

Label  
Yes.

Type  
binary

Confidence  
0.78

Label source  
U.S. TreasuryJun 18, 2026  
OFAC designates five entities tied to shadow-fleet operators

DATASET **Geopolitical events**

RL

Question  
Will an Iranian-aligned group claim at least one successful strike on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb in the 30 days after the May 12, 2026 Red Sea coalition communiqué?

Question source  
Lloyd’s ListMay 12, 2026  
Coalition warns of renewed escort operations through June

Label  
No.

Type  
binary

Confidence  
0.71

Label source  
UKMTOJun 11, 2026  
No confirmed strikes on monitored traffic in 30-day window

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