Geopolitical Risks

Forecasting cross-border conflict, sanctions, and strategic-military events

What we did

Ingested timestamped wire reports, think-tank briefs, and MoD/DoD releases.
Generated forecasting questions on cross-border military activity, sanctions, and alliance behavior.
Labeled from public ground-truth trackers (Taiwan MND, ACLED, Treasury OFAC actions).
Trained a specialized model on the outcome-labeled corpus.

Example datapoint

A sample training example — question, source, and outcome-derived label.

DATASET Geopolitical events

Question
What is the probability of at least one People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait in Aug 2026 after the Jul 2026 joint U.S.–Philippines exercise schedule is published?

Question source
CSIS ChinaPowerJul 1, 2026
PLAN sorties up 18% week-on-week ahead of Balikatan follow-on

Label
0.61

Type
continuous

Confidence
0.74

Label source
Taiwan Ministry of National DefenseAug 31, 2026
Daily PLA tracker: 14 median-line crossings logged in August

DATASET Geopolitical events

Question
Will the U.S. Treasury OFAC add at least three new entities to the SDN list in connection with Russian oil-price-cap evasion during Q2 2026?

Question source
ReutersApr 4, 2026
Treasury signals fresh designations after ship-to-ship transfers spike

Label
Yes.

Type
binary

Confidence
0.78

Label source
U.S. TreasuryJun 18, 2026
OFAC designates five entities tied to shadow-fleet operators

DATASET Geopolitical events

Question
Will an Iranian-aligned group claim at least one successful strike on commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb in the 30 days after the May 12, 2026 Red Sea coalition communiqué?

Question source
Lloyd’s ListMay 12, 2026
Coalition warns of renewed escort operations through June

Label
No.

Type
binary

Confidence
0.71

Label source
UKMTOJun 11, 2026
No confirmed strikes on monitored traffic in 30-day window